Assembly elections were held in Maharashtra after 5 years of political upheaval. Now there are some questions. Will the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition form the government again or who will the Congress's Mahavikas Aghadi choose between the divided Shiv Sena and the NCP?
Will schemes like the Maratha reservation movement, Maratha Vs OBC issues and Ladki Behen have an impact on the results? Bhaskar's reporters met voters from Mumbai to Konkan, West Maharashtra to Marathwada, North Maharashtra to Vidarbha to find out the answers to these questions. Talked to political experts, journalists, people associated with political PR agencies. Read Bhaskar Reporters Poll…
BJP is the largest party, Congress has the biggest advantage All the 288 seats in Maharashtra went to polls in a single phase on November 20. The result will be out on 23rd November. From the inputs received during the coverage, it was realized that it would be difficult for either the Mahayuti or the Mahavikas Aghadi to get the 145 seats required for a majority.
BJP can get maximum 80-90 seats. In 2019, it got 105 seats. Congress may finish second with 58-60 seats. It had 44 seats in the last election. Sharad Pawar's magic is seen working in the elections. His party NCP (SP), which has fielded 87 candidates, could win 50-55 seats.
Shiv Sena (Shinde group) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav group) could win 30-35 seats and tie. Ajit Pawar's party is becoming a weak link in the NCP grand alliance. It is likely to win only 15-20 seats. Minor parties and independents may get 20 to 25 seats. In such a situation he can become a kingmaker.
In the Bhaskar Reporters poll, the alliance of Mahavikas Aghadi Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav) may get 10 more seats than the Mahayuti. This coalition is also likely to get majority.
Mahavikas Aghadi Uddhav's Shiv Sena weak, Congress dominant in Vidarbha Congress, which was placed fourth in the 2019 elections, is looking superior to its allies this time. In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress surprised by winning maximum 13 seats. Congress can win around 50 seats out of 62 seats in Vidarbha. Congress has fielded the maximum 103 candidates in the alliance.
Shiv Sena (the Uddhav faction), the second largest party in Mahavikas Aghadi, may prove to be the weakest. The party has fielded 96 candidates. Only one-third of these have a chance of winning. Sharad Pawar's party NCP (SP) is looking strong in western Maharashtra and Marathwada. He may benefit from Maratha votes.
Mahayuti: BJP's strike rate is good, Ajit Pawar can spoil the game The BJP-led grand alliance may fall just short of a majority. BJP can do well in North Maharashtra, Konkan and Mumbai. However, the party is seeing losses in Vidarbha. BJP won 29 seats here in the last election.
The other major party in the coalition, Shiv Sena (Shinde group), is strong in Mumbai, Konkan and Marathwada. The party has fielded candidates on 83 seats. Ajit Pawar's NCP could be the reason behind Mahayuti. In rural areas of western Maharashtra and Marathwada, the party seems to be lagging behind Sharad Pawar. Even in the Lok Sabha elections, Ajit Pawar's party could win only the Raigad seat. The party is contesting on 52 seats in the assembly elections.
If no coalition gets a majority, independents will form the government At the national level, the Samajwadi Party, which is part of the INDIA bloc, is contesting elections separately in Maharashtra. He may get a seat. Raj Thackeray's party Maharashtra Navnirman Sena may win 2-4 candidates. Baba Ambedkar's grandson Prakash Ambedkar's party Bahujan Vikas Aghadi may get one seat. In 2019, this party won 3 seats.
13 independent candidates won in the last election. This time the number could be more than 20, which means that both coalitions will need them to form the government in the event of not getting a majority.
Expert said – Statements like Batenge to Katenge became a challenge for Mahayuti Girish Kuber, editor of the Marathi newspaper Loksatta, says, 'Both the opposition and the ruling party had no major issue before the elections. UP CM Yogi Adityanath raised the issue that 'Batenge to Katenge'. This statement became a challenge to the Mahayuti, as allies NCP (Ajith) and Shiv Sena (Shinde) wanted to bring Dalits and Muslims together. Yogi's statement has hurt him.
'In the Lok Sabha elections, the difference in votes between Mahayuti and Mahavikas Aghadi was only 1%, but Mahavikas Aghadi won 13 more seats. Vidarbha is a safe constituency for BJP. In 2019, BJP won 29 seats here, even BJP feels that it cannot win more seats.
Sharad Pawar has influence in western Maharashtra and Vidarbha. There is a close competition in North Maharashtra. The situation is bad for BJP in Marathwada. There the Shiv Sena (Shinde) party may get some seats from the Mahayuti. Around 75 seats are in Mumbai and Thane-Konkan region. Here lies the greatest hope of the grand coalition.
BJP+ suffered due to communal polarization Marathi daily Pudhari's political editor Pramod Chanchuwar believes that Mahavikas Aghadi will win more than 150 seats, but it will be a borderline victory. There is neck to neck fight between Mahavikas Aghadi and Mahayuti on many seats.
Another thing to note in this election is that leaders who were secular are standing with the BJP, including Milind Deora, Ashok Chavan and Ajit Pawar.
Pramod Chanchuwar says, 'These leaders are not doing divisive politics. Ajit Pawar and Pankaja Munde said that this will not work in Maharashtra. Communal polarization has been attempted before, but the people of Maharashtra have rejected it.
'This election has been fought on local issues. The constitution issue could prove to be a big one, as the MLAs here are hijacking the party. The party and symbol were also stripped. BJP looks weak on the issue of constitution.
In 1995, 45 independents were included in the government, this time also it is possible Rajendra Sathe, a senior journalist based in Mumbai, says, 'If both alliances fall short of a majority, independent MLAs will help form the government. For the first time in 1995, 45 independent candidates were elected to the Maharashtra Assembly and all of them joined the government. The numbers game will again see the same thing, but the number will be much lower than 45, around 20-25.
What will happen to Raj Thackeray and Ajit Pawar after the elections? Raj Thackeray has predicted that BJP will become the Chief Minister after the elections. In 2029, his party MNS will succeed in making him its Chief Minister. It is clear from Raj Thackeray's statement that Mahayuti government is being formed.
Senior journalist Rajendra Sathe believes that Raj Thackeray will cut the votes of Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena in this election. He has full support for BJP. They only work to get votes and hardly win 4 seats.
About Ajit Pawar, he says, 'Though Ajit is part of the Mahayuti, he often disagrees with the praises of old allies or the statements of allies. How many of his candidates will win is a question, as Sharad Pawar is putting all his might into the election.
Senior journalist Sandeep Sonwalkar makes a different claim about the meetings. He says that around 136 seats are in sight for Mahayuti, while Mahavikas Aghadi is likely to get 126 seats.
5 Issues That Affected Elections 1. Resentment of Soybean and Cotton Farmers in Vidarbha-Marathwada There is water scarcity in Vidarbha and Marathwada. Instead of wheat, sugarcane and rice, soybeans and cotton are cultivated here. Both crops require less water. Soybeans are harvested in November and cotton is harvested in the field. Current prices of both soybean and cotton are below MSP. There is anger among the farmers regarding this.
There are 62 assembly seats in Vidarbha and 46 in Marathwada. Vidarbha has been the strongest bastion of Congress. Here there is direct competition between BJP and Congress on 36 seats. Sharad Pawar's good image among farmers of Marathwada will be benefited by Mahavikas Aghadi.
2. Maratha vs OBC, Mahavikas Aghadi will benefit if Maratha votes are not divided The Maratha reservation movement has been going on for the last 2 years in the villages of Maharashtra. Here is the influence of Manoj Jarange Patil who started the movement. Earlier Manoj Jarang had decided to contest, but at the last minute he withdrew his candidature.
If Manoj Jarang Patil's candidate had contested, the Maratha votes would have been divided into three parts. One part will go to Manoj Jarange, another to Mahavikas Aghadi and third small part to Mahayuti. Mahavikas Aghadi would have suffered the most due to this.
Experts believe that the Maratha votes will split into two due to Manoj Jarang's last-minute withdrawal of candidature. Sharad Pawar and Congress can get a big share in this.
3. Ladki Behena Yojana and Women Voters After the defeat in the Lok Sabha elections, the Shinde government launched the Ladki Behena Yojana for women, in which women get Rs 1500 per month. It has been promised to increase it to 2100 rupees after the formation of the government.
The scheme was launched on the lines of Madhya Pradesh. On the basis of this scheme, the BJP won a big victory in the assembly elections there. On the other hand, Mahavikas Aghadi has promised that women will get Rs 3000 per month if their government is formed.
4. Dharavi Redevelopment Project The issue of redevelopment of Mumbai's largest slum, Dharavi, had heated up even before the elections. Adani group company has got this project. Uddhav Thackeray has promised to cancel the project. Congress is already targeting BJP on the pretext of Gautam Adani. Sharad Pawar, who belongs to Mahavikas Aghadi, has been a friend of Gautam Adani.
During the election, Ajit Pawar in an interview mentioned a meeting held in 2019, in which Gautam Adani was also present along with Home Minister Amit Shah, Devendra Fadnavis, Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar. Sharad Pawar also accepted this. However, BJP kept silent.
5. Attempt to polarize with slogans like 'Ek Hai To Seif Hai' The politics of slogans that started with UP CM Yogi's 'Katange To Batenge' reached to PM Modi's 'Ek Hai To Seif Hai'. Before the elections, BJP also gave advertisements in newspapers.
Experts also believe that the 'Batange to Katange' slogan polarized Muslim votes, which benefited Mahavikas Aghadi.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
