There may be ups and downs in the stock market this week. The market will keep an eye on factors like Maharashtra election results, F&O expiry and second quarter GDP data. Market gap up may open on Monday after BJP's big victory in Maharashtra.
According to Harshubh Mahesh Shah, founder of Wealth View Analytics, this week Nifty-50 can rise to the level of 24,500. However, selling may occur at this level and in the coming days Nifty may fall by about 1000 points to the level of 23,500.
According to Harshubh, the main direction of the market is still going to remain negative.
5 factors which will decide the market movement this week…
1. Maharashtra results: Market rally possible due to NDA's victory
The effect of Maharashtra election results can be seen in the market on Monday. NDA has got a unilateral victory in Maharashtra, due to which the possibility of a rise in the stock market has increased.
Earlier on Friday too, Sensex had seen a rise of about 2000 points after exit polls predicted NDA's victory. This rally may continue on Monday also.
2. Global Factors: Russia-Ukraine tension increases inflation concerns
Rising crude oil prices as well as rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine have heightened inflation concerns. The market will keep an eye on economic data like America's second quarter GDP growth rate and FOMC minutes.
3. FII's and DII's: FII's sold Rs 41,000 crore
Foreign institutional investors (FII's) combined pulled out ₹1.55 lakh crore from Indian markets in October and November. In the month of November, foreign investors have so far sold about Rs 41,000 crore in the cash segment.
However, domestic institutional investors have been continuously buying DII's. Domestic investors have made purchases worth about Rs 38 thousand crore so far in November. Earlier in October, domestic investors had purchased Rs 1.07 lakh crore.
4. IPO and Listing: No mainboard IPO, 6 IPOs in SME
In the mainboard segment, no new IPO will open this week. However, bidding for the already open IPO Enviro Infra Engineers will close on November 26. Six new issues will open for subscription in the SME segment.
Whereas NTPC Green Energy shares will debut on Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) on 27th November. Two shares of SME segment will also be listed on BSE SME or NSE SME this week.
5. Technical View: Sell on Rise strategy from 24,500 level
Technically, Nifty has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average (DEMA) and is approaching the next resistance on its 20-DEMA, 24,020. On crossing this level, Nifty can move towards 24,350-24,550 range. On the downside, a strong support zone of 23,500 remains.
Palka Arora Chopra of Master Capital Services Ltd believes that Nifty 50 ended the week with a positive candle on the weekly chart, rebounding after eight weeks of selling. Recovery came in Nifty from 200-day EMA. Chopra said, traders can adopt the strategy of Sell on Rise until Nifty sustains above 24,500.
Sensex rises by almost 2000 points after 5 months
On the last trading day of the week i.e. on November 22, the Sensex closed at 79,117 with a rise of 1961 points (2.54%). Nifty also rose by 557 points (2.39%), closing at the level of 23,907.
Out of 30 Sensex stocks, 29 rose and 1 declined. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 49 rose and 1 declined. Except Nifty Media, all the sectoral indices of NSE closed with gains. IT and realty indices rose the most.
Graphics Source: VaskarAssets
