Reason Conclusion: What is the socio-political impact of Maharashtra?

Ramesh Ojha

In the year 2014, the Maharashtra assembly elections were held immediately after the Lok Sabha elections, as now, and the BGP did not get a single-handed majority in Maharashtra. For the Lok Sabha, the BJP fielded candidates in 24 of the total 48 constituencies of the Maharashtra Assembly and won 23 of them. BJP got 14 more seats than in 2009 elections. BJP's then ally Shiv Sena fielded candidates in 20 constituencies and won 18 seats. The Sena got nine seats more than in 2009. The Sena-BJP NDA front won 41 of the total 48 seats and got 51.75 percent votes. BJP then believed that this victory was its own, Narendra Modi's and Shiv Sena was its beneficiary. It is natural for anyone who does not know the impact of Maharashtra to believe so. In the assembly elections held in the same year, the BJP sought so many seats from the army that it did not need the support of the army. No agreement was reached and both sides broke the 25-year-old alliance. In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP contested 260 of the 288 seats and gave 28 seats to grassroots parties. The results were shocking. The BJP won 122 of the 260 seats and was 23 seats short of the majority. BJP had to take the help of Shiv Sena to form the government. The year 2019 was the year of great victory for Narendra Modi. In that election, NDA won 43 out of 48 seats with 51.34 percent votes and UPA (Congress and Sharad Pawar's NCP) got only five seats with 32.7 percent votes. Ahead of the 2019 Maharashtra assembly elections, the BJP kicked the Sena and broke the alliance. The results were startling. The BJP's seats and votes dropped by 17 and two percent, respectively, compared to the 2014 assembly elections. BJP got only 105 seats. BJP betrayed Shiv Sena for the second time. This time instead of going with the BJP, the Shiv Sena formed the government along with the Congress and the NCP and Uddhav became the Chief Minister. BJP leaders knew that after playing the game of using Shiv Sena in the Lok Sabha elections and kicking it in the Assembly elections twice, it could not be played a third time. Yanken was supposed to capture Maharashtra, because Maharashtra has Mumbai, two ports. Every inch of land is as precious as a bar of gold. Apart from these there are Pune and Aurangabad and besides Maharashtra gives the highest revenue in the country. But it was not captured. Failed twice. Brand Narendra Modi brings success in the Lok Sabha elections, but fails in the assembly elections. What is it in Maharashtra that both Narendra Modi's brand and Amit Shah's Chanakyabuddhi were not successful? Maharashtra has the largest proportion of the country's middle class and the middle class is Narendra Modi's biggest strength. Before discussing the reasons for this, let us talk about the immediate need of the BJP and the path it has adopted. Two options were left: the first option was to make inroads within the opposition parties and the second option was to defeat the candidates of the opposition parties by raising vote-cuts wherever necessary. BJP split into Shiv Sena and NCP. The Election Commission recognized the split Phadiya as a genuine party and instead of suspending it, gave it the election symbol. It was calculated that if not more, 25 to 40 percent of the votes would bring a split and then the votes would be cut. If Shiv Sena and NCP get at least 40 percent votes, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are afraid. But that game boomeranged in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections held before the assembly elections. Unlike 2014 and 2019, brand Narendra Modi did not get success in this election. It did not succeed where the country's largest middle class resides. The city of Mumbai did not succeed. BJP won only nine of the 28 seats it fielded. In 2014 and 2019, the 90 percent strike rate (proportion of candidates who won out of standing candidates) dropped to 30 percent. Splitting opposition parties to win elections is not a new game. In Madhya Pradesh and in other states too, this cure was done by BJP. Also got success. Maharashtra is one such state where even after trying the remedy of intimidation and raising vote quotas, there is no success and that too in the Lok Sabha elections. Also, Maharashtra is one of the states where Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh was founded. The Sangh and in turn the BJP is controlled by the Maharashtra Sangh leaders. In one way, the country is ruled by the people of Maharashtra. It is said that decisions are made in Nagpur. Gangotri of Hinduism is Maharashtra. Vinayak Damodar Savarkar was from Maharashtra. Lokmanya Tilak was from Maharashtra and Tilak's followers have been supporting Sangh/Jana Sangh/BJP since its inception. Given all these circumstances, entry into Maharashtra should have been the easiest for the BJP, but the experience is that entry into Maharashtra is proving to be the most difficult for the BJP. Narendra Modi's two attempts to enter Maharashtra failed when the sun was shining at midday. Now the test is going to be conducted for the third time. Why? What is it in the socio-political situation of Maharashtra that BJP is finding it difficult to enter the state where Hindutva is Gangotri? As assembly elections are being held in Maharashtra, the socio-political impact of Maharashtra should be understood and such an attempt will be made hereafter. }