In most parts of the country, the average temperature in the first fortnight of October is 2 degrees higher than the average temperature in September. Rather than the onset of a mild winter, the sensation of heat has raised questions on the forecasts of weather agencies across the world, including the IMD.
A La Nina condition was predicted to form and it was said that this year would have a harsh winter, but La Nina has not yet formed. However, the Indian Meteorological Department still believes that below normal temperatures are likely this winter.
On La Nina, the American agency NOAA, Australian agency ABM and Indian Meteorological Agency IMD in April estimated that there is an 85 percent chance of La Nina developing in June. After this the monsoon passed, but La Niña did not form. Now the agency's latest estimate is that there is a 60% chance of La Nina forming by the end of November.
A La-Nina or El-Nino effect is caused by an increase or decrease in temperature at the two ends of the ocean. La Nina brings good rainfall in India, El Nino does the opposite.
Winter forecast in India is done 1-2 weeks in advance Skymet scientist Mahesh Palawat says how severe the winter will be depends on the number and intensity of Western Disturbances. In years when this disturbance is more frequent and its effect extends from the north to the central region of the country, the winters are longer.
Western Disturbance originates in the Mediterranean Sea and from October to February their path passes through the Himalayas. Due to which high altitude areas are getting snowfall and plain areas are getting rain. Western disturbances can be predicted one to two weeks in advance.
Will find out the reason… so that there is no mistake in predicting the future Projections like La-Nina or El-Nino are made based on large-scale global climate models, which India also follows. Now in the forum for predicting La-Nina and El-Nino in WMO, there will be a discussion on what were the reasons for the wrong forecast so that there is no mistake in future forecast.
What next… Australia and America cut chances
- Australia Weather Bureau: A statement issued this week said the likelihood of La Nina developing in the coming months is diminishing. Four out of six climate models have confirmed this. Even if it does form, it will be weak and active for fewer days.
- US agency NOAA: There is a 60% chance of La Niña conditions in late November. 71% chance of staying from January to March. (Two months ago, the probability of La Niña developing in October was said to be 75%.)
- Indian Meteorological Department: We also have the same estimate as the Australian Bureau. Every global weather agency has failed to predict this global event, this requires a deeper investigation.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
