The results of the presidential election in America are coming. Republican Party nominee Donald Trump has taken a lead over Kamala Harris in early trends. 270 seats are required to become President in America. It is necessary to win 7 swing states to get this many seats.
There are a total of 93 seats in swing states. 2 of those results came in swing states North Carolina and Georgia. Trump has won both. Apart from this Trump has got lead in 4 swing states. Counting has not begun in another swing state, Nevada. If Trump wins these states, he will win the election.
There are 50 states in America, most of which are divided between the Democratic and Republican parties. States that support the Democratic Party are called Blue States and those that support the Republican Party are called Red States.
Also, there are some states that support both parties. Voters in these states can swing to either party, meaning they can flip. There are a total of 7 swing states in this election. Last time the Democratic Party won in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona. Also, Trump's Republican Party only won in North Carolina.
What are the swing states?
- North Carolina – Trump won by a margin of 3.6%
- Arizona – 53% of the vote counted – Trump ahead by 0.8%
- Michigan – 53% of the vote counted – Trump ahead by 6%
- Wisconsin – 83% of votes counted – Trump ahead by 4%
- Pennsylvania – 88% of votes counted – Trump ahead by 3%
- Georgia – Trump won by a margin of 2.5%
- Nevada – Counting has started
Pennsylvania- The most popular swing state
Among swing states, Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes with 19. This is the reason why both the parties have campaigned the most in this state. According to the BBC, in the last few weeks, the state has seen advertisements worth Rs 2.4 thousand crore, which is the highest compared to any other state.
The Republican Party has won Pennsylvania only once from 1992 to 2020. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 0.7% of the vote. In the 2020 election, Biden defeated Trump by a margin of just 1.2%.
North Carolina – Kamala's party has won the election here only once.
North Carolina is dominated by the Republican Party. From 1980 to 2020, the Democratic Party has won only once, in 2008. Barack Obama then defeated Republican candidate John McCain by just 14,177 votes (0.32%).
Here in the 2020 election, Trump defeated Biden by about 74 thousand votes (1.34%). This is the only state out of the current 7 swing states where Trump won in the last election.
However, due to the narrow vote margin between the two parties in the last few elections, North Carolina has been placed in the swing state category this time around.
Wisconsin – Trump said – if you win here, understand that everything is won
Wisconsin has long been a blue state. From 1988 to 2020, the Republican Party managed to win here only once (2016). Trump won here by just 22,748 (0.77%) votes. Also in 2020 election he lost by only 20,682 (0.63%) votes.
Because of this brief rivalry, Wisconsin became a battleground state. Here both sides are pushing hard for victory.
The Republican National Convention was held in July in Milwaukee. It's in Wisconsin. According to the BBC, Trump touted the state's importance and said that if he wins Wisconsin, he will win everything.
Even the Democratic Party knows the importance of Wisconsin. Kamala held her first rally in Wisconsin just 2 days after Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Kamala then said that the road to the White House goes through Wisconsin.
According to the report, the biggest problem for the Democratic Party in Wisconsin is Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Stein is also a US presidential contender. She is campaigning on the promise of basic rights to employment, education, housing, health and food.
Many surveys claim that he may get 1% (about 10,000) votes in this election. This can make a big difference in a state like Wisconsin. This is why the Democratic Party has made every effort to unseat Jill.
The Democratic Party has complained to the Election Commission that Jill Steen's candidacy is illegal. He did not follow the election rules properly. Indeed, the ideology of the Green Party is somewhat closer to that of the Democratic Party. The presence of the Green Party hurts the Democratic Party the most.
Nevada- The swing state with the fewest seats Issue- unemployment
The Democratic Party has won Nevada in the last 4 elections. However, the vote margin here has been low in the last two elections. In the last election, Biden beat Trump by about 2.5% of the vote. Also, in the 2016 election, Hillary defeated Trump by 3.4% of the vote.
Due to narrow margins in the last two elections, Nevada is placed in the swing state category this time. Even though this swing state has the lowest 6 electoral votes. Despite this, since 2004, the party that won the state has won the presidential election.
According to The Guardian, Nevada has the highest unemployment rate of any US state. Donald Trump has been raising the issue of the economy for some time now. Also, the Democratic Party is taking credit for saving the country from Corona.
Arizona – Republican Party stronghold flipped in 2020
Arizona has been a stronghold of the Republican Party. From 1952 to 2020, the Democratic Party has won only twice. Clinton won here for the first time in 1996 and Biden won here in the last election. However, he won by only 10,457 votes (0.3%).
Actually, Arizona is the closest state to Mexico. Over the past few decades, people from other countries have settled in Arizona via Mexico.
According to the US Census Bureau, in 1996, white Americans made up 67.6% of Arizona. Which will decrease to 52.9% in 2024. Also, the Hispanic (Spanish-speaking South American) population, which was 22.4% in 1996, has now increased to 32.9%. Democratic Party policy is pro-immigrant. In such a situation it has benefited from this change in demography.
This time Trump has made the migrant problem the biggest issue. He raised this issue in the last two debates as well. Apart from this, he has been raising this issue in almost every speech.
Georgia – where Biden prevented the Republican Party from winning a seventh term
Georgia was a stronghold of the Democratic Party. From 1868 to 1956, the Democratic Party won 27 consecutive elections here. Then in the nineties, the Republican Party established its dominance here.
In the 2020 election, the Republican Party set out to win Georgia for the seventh consecutive time, but failed to do so. Biden defeated Trump by 11,779 (0.23%) votes. This is the reason why Georgia, a red state, became a swing state in the last election.
Trump was arrested in Georgia last year. He had to go to jail for 20 minutes. In fact, Trump was accused of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
Michigan – Muslim voters, disaffected with the Democratic Party, will turn to black voters
In Michigan, from 1992 to 2020, the Republican Party won only once (2016). In the 2016 election, Trump won here by just 10,704 votes (0.23%). In the 2020 elections, Trump lost here by about 1.5 lakh votes.
There are about 100,000 Arab-American Muslims in Wayne, Michigan. They are outraged by the ongoing conflict in Gaza. More than 100,000 voters chose the 'none' option in the Democratic Party primary contest. In fact, these voters were upset about not being able to provide American weapons to Israel and stop the war in Gaza.
Trump also has his eye on Michigan. According to the BBC, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Democratic government over the war in Gaza. Trump said if he becomes president, he will stop the war in Gaza.
Kamala Harris moved to Michigan in early August. Here he faced heavy opposition. Expressing displeasure over it, Kamala said that if you want Trump to win the election, oppose me.
Michigan is 74% white Americans. About 14% are black voters. Last time, Biden got the support of black voters. With Kamala Harris as the contender, black voters can once again express their faith in the Democratic Party.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
