Home/Foreign: Ukraine-Russia Towards Truce?

Dr. Jai Narayan Vyas

With the cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, the world's eyes are now on Russia-Ukraine. Retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a man who believes the war must end through negotiations, has been chosen as the US ambassador to Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg must have realized that one of the ambitious campaign promises of Donald Trump, who is running for his second term, was to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg was Vice President Mike Pence's National Security Advisor during Trump's previous term. Donald Trump announced on November 27, 2024 that he would appoint General Kellogg as the Special Envoy to Ukraine and Russia. General Kellogg's role will be to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine as Trump's confidant. In a post on social media regarding the selection of General Kellogg, Trump said that together we will restore peace with strength and make America and the world safe. General Kellogg was Vice President Mike Pence's National Security Advisor during Trump's first innings and briefly served as Trump's National Advisor as well as Chief of Staff of the National Security Council. After the appointment of General Kellogg, Trump said that in addition to the responsibility of Russia-Ukraine, he will also work as Trump's assistant. Kellogg accepted his appointment and welcomed it on social media, saying that he did everything to restore peace by working hard to protect America's interests and by showing force where necessary. will be released Looking at the statements he has made during the campaign and his relationship with Putin, it seems that Trump's attitude will not be completely neutral, but the peace talks will continue with a pro-Russian slant. During his election campaign, Trump has said more than once that this conflict could have been avoided in Ukraine, that with a few compromises, this conflict could have been resolved before the invasion of Russia. General Kellogg currently serves as Co-Chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute. The conservative-leaning organization is linked to Trump. Kellogg, while working at this organization, prepared a report in April 2024, according to which the United States should be proactive in bringing about a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, and should pursue a policy of bringing these two countries to the negotiating table. should Kellogg says the U.S. should arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to prevent Russia from invading or infiltrating it again and calling for a cease-fire or The peace treaty shall not be violated in any way. In this report, Kellogg wrote that future US aid and military cooperation will depend on Ukraine sitting at the peace table with Russia and actively cooperating towards a ceasefire. In short, this means that the US favors Russia not to invade or infiltrate. But at the same time, it will provide Ukraine with weapons and other defense-related assistance only if Ukraine is ready for a ceasefire. At first glance, Kellogg's words seem suffocating. Ukraine has been in line for NATO membership for years. Sweden got immediate membership but Ukraine did not. Therefore, if there is no NATO country, it is a matter of great doubt whether Ukraine can stand against Russia in terms of weapons and finances, apart from the protection umbrella of America. If the US puts its weight, weapons and financial strength, dominance over NATO countries – all this in the balance, there will be no option but to make a treaty for Ukraine as well. From this perspective, it can be said that Trump's talk about the ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine based on the Kellogg report is based on a specific strategy and calculation rather than just filling in the air. It is also logical that Trump's relationship with Putin will play an important role in making these peace talks a success. Thus, if need be, Ukraine could be freed from the noose that has essentially tied NATO funding around America's neck, and yet from the hands of the American arms industry. Ukraine's market will not go away, America's cold Ukraine at the end of Europe will be its permanent ally, many such strategic benefits will not only be gained by the United States but also by its multinational companies if the Russia-Ukraine treaty is made. Back to active in Russia. Thus, Trump's strategy of killing many birds with one stone suits the mentality of the businessman sitting in it. On the other hand, by talking about providing American weapons to Ukraine, it has raised the fear of bringing Russia to the negotiating table. In an interview in June, Trump also made an implicit threat to end Ukraine by giving it whatever it wants if Russia doesn't agree. This is probably why Kellogg and some conservatives wrote to Biden advising him to delay aid to Ukraine. He said that if massive aid is given to Ukraine from now on, the debt burden that America is under will increase significantly. Ukrainian soldiers are tired now. On the other hand, Russia has improved the coordination of its military by creating illegal connections to Elon Musk's Starlink. He has withdrawn Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region. Russia's plan to take over Ukraine's territory has not been as successful as expected. North Korean soldiers have arrived here to fight with the help of Russia. That's why Biden has allowed Ukraine to launch ballistic missile attacks deep into Russia. Retaining Kursk is important for both Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg says that this approval of Biden has helped Trump more because, because of it, Trump's bargaining power has increased. In these circumstances, Kellogg's choice has been widely welcomed. To sum it all up, the chances of a successful negotiation between the two countries in the Russia-Ukraine war seem to be fading. }