Home and abroad: How will Trump's second innings as the American president be?

Dr. Jai Narayan Vyas

One of MP's favorite topics is to make imports into the US more expensive by increasing import duties, i.e. tariffs, on imports into the US. Many of the American industrial houses manufacture outside the US to make their products globally competitive by taking advantage of cheaper labor rates and other advantages. Many companies, starting with Tesla, have moved their massive factories to China. An indirect effect of this has also been that China's share in foreign trade is about one-sixth of the world's total trade. In this way, China has also achieved the achievement of overflowing its dollar reserves by earning foreign exchange. As industrial production takes place in its own country, naturally there are employment opportunities and other ancillary benefits and China's GDP increases, as a result of which China today has become the second largest economy in the world after the United States. India is at number 5 but compared to 25-27 trillion dollars of America, China etc. India's total GDP is not even a fifth of theirs. For this reason, there is no reason to doubt that Trump's target was on China even during his first tenure as the American president and will continue to be on China during his four-year tenure starting from January, 2025. Due to this happening, the import of goods made abroad and especially made in China will not only be controlled in the US, but as the green is burnt along with the dry, countries like India, which has a contribution of barely two and a half percent in the foreign trade, will be the victims. Until a few months ago, America was India's number one trade partner. Now that place has been taken by China, not only that, our imports with China are very high and our exports are relatively low, so we are a trade deficit partner in trade with China. Therefore, on the contrary, in the trade with America, India's exports to America are more and imports are less, so our trade with America is limited, so if the Indian products imported to America become unattractive to the market there due to the increase in tariffs, then there is a possibility that the foreign exchange of India will decrease as a result. After such a vague mention, Trump goes on all imports to some extent if the tariff increases, the benefit of buying goods at cheaper prices due to international competition will not be available to the American market and through it to the American consumer. According to news reports, Trump intends to impose a 20 percent tariff on all imports into the United States. It also talks about imposing a 60 percent penalty on imports of Chinese-made goods into the US. China, India and other countries will lose out in this whole game because, due to the high import duties imposed on them, goods produced outside the US will not be able to compete easily in American markets. Let's add another thing to this. A negative side effect of higher tariffs for the US market is the possibility of price hikes and the creation of inflationary conditions. It would be a mistake to believe that if the idea of ​​imposing a high tariff or penalty on imports into the United States is implemented, the manufacturing units outside the United States will rush to the United States overnight. It takes about one-and-a-half to two years for any industry from inception to commercial production. So half of Trump's tenure is over and as a result the price increase in manufactured goods will be left behind. Due to these high prices, the American manufacturers may get enough profit in the American market, but the products made at higher prices are not sold in the world market, so the tendency to import from countries like China increases in non-American markets. Thus, this policy of Trump will act like a double-edged sword. Some of Trump's other decisions have also become controversial. D. T. The anchor of a Fox News program is to be appointed as the Secretary of State for Defense. America has a budget of 800 billion dollars and an army of 19 lakhs. With its military bases scattered almost all over the world, a person with no direct experience of war has been chosen for this very important task. An ardent supporter of Israel is to be appointed as the American ambassador to Israel. Likewise, the person chosen to head the CIA is relatively inexperienced. The stability and strength of the kingdom is determined on the four important bases of Sama, Dama, Danda and Bheda. Even in this, espionage account i.e. intelligence plays a very important part. CIA's name is highly respected among such top organizations around the world, if such weak and inexperienced people are appointed, it also means that like in India, the country will be ruled from the White House and the ministers will be relatively unimportant. In this second innings of Trump as the American president, it may not be surprising if Trump's working style and mood seem to have changed a lot. }