Causal Inference: Is Electoral Victory a Result of Management?

Ramesh Ojha

The results of the Haryana assembly elections and then the by-elections of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and the by-elections of the 13 states across the country, mainly in the ten seats of Uttar Pradesh, are shocking. The surveyors have now lost face so it is foolish to even talk about the veracity of their predictions. Let alone the pollsters, even seasoned and well-studied political commentators of repute have proved wrong. Which even the simple understanding of local journalists and people working at district and taluka level in those states has been proved wrong. Even BJP supporters did not imagine such a victory. Ajit Pawar, leader of the Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra, was in a defeated mood before and during the election and it was visible in his face as well as in his words, he got 41 seats. How could a veteran and crafty leader of Maharashtra like Sharad Pawar be defeated so easily and so badly? Maharashtra is one state in North and West India where the BJP never got a clear majority and captured the state. BJP contested on 149 seats and won 132 of its candidates. Thus, BJP has won 45 percent of the total 288 seats in Maharashtra. BJP's strike rate is 88.59 percent. Against this, the strike rate of Sharad Pawar's nationalist party is only 11.62 percent and the strike rate of Bhatriji's party is 69.49 percent. Ajit Pawar's party got 41 seats because of BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena also benefited because of BJP. Why did this happen? The political opinion and mood of the people changed in just six months? In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP suffered a crushing defeat in Haryana, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. In Jharkhand, the NDA won nine of the total 14 seats and the India Alliance won five of the 14. This time BJP was defeated in Jharkhand. So what do these results indicate? As usual EVMs are suspected, but one thing is to be admitted that there is no concrete evidence yet that EVMs can be tampered with. Secondly the election process has thousands of people serving from top to bottom and it is not possible to manage so many people. Whether EVMs are tampered with or not, can be done or not, any doubt in the minds of the citizens as well as the rival parties should end. Elections are the lifeblood of democracy and should be beyond doubt. Public trust is paramount. Most of the democratic countries of the world do not use EVMs because of public trust. A democracy without trust is not a democracy. Elections should be dubious and everyone should feel so. But I want to point out an important change here. After the Lok Sabha elections, you must have seen that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not at the center of the electoral battlefield as he was before the Lok Sabha elections. Modi ki guarantee hoardings are also not seen and no such language is also seen. Narendra Modi is still the star campaigner, but elections are not being fought with him at the centre. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh is convinced that Narendra Modi has taken the party to a new height and cannot take it any higher now. After LK Advani took the party to new heights in the years 1987-1994, the Sangh was convinced that he could no longer take the party further and moved him away from the centre. Even though the country and the world may think that the Modi era is eternal, but for the Sangh family, the Modi era is over. Now he has developed and is adopting a completely autonomous path from Narendra Modi going forward. There is no doubt that Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have a big hand in developing that path, but that path is subjective and autonomous. Narendra Modi's role in taking the party to the top is over now. What is that way? Now the Sangh and the BJP manage the elections together. in what way One, by having enormous resources and leaving the competitor far behind in resources. Two. By mico management of each constituency in English. Three. By shedding its cadre and giving specific targets to vote cuts. BJP's victory is the result of this management. Narendra Modi was the only factor in the Lok Sabha elections. Not anymore. The party and the Sangh held the space that LK Advani had created. At present, the space created by Narendra Modi has to be held. This is the difference between power-seeking parties and ideologically-based cadre parties. Retain as much as you have accumulated and wait for an opportunity to go higher. }