After an influx of U.S. arms and money helped Ukraine stave off a new invasion of the northeastern Kharkiv region in May, preventing a major breakthrough and dashing Moscow’s hopes of encircling Ukraine’s second-largest city, Russian commanders have again turned their attention to the Donetsk region, perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top territorial target.
The new invasion of the Kharkiv region, while producing limited gains, has diverted Ukrainian resources. Oleksandr, 30, a battalion commander with the 47th Brigade fighting near Ocheretyne, said Ukrainian forces are struggling and Putin's goal appears increasingly within Russia's reach.
“This strategy is clever: you try to concentrate your enemy’s strength in one direction and then distract them in another,” said Oleksandr, whose callsign is “Genius” and who is being identified only by his first name in accordance with Ukrainian military protocol.
“Their first goal is to destroy us,” he said. “The second is to put pressure on us so they can have more influence in the peace talks and get more from us. They are almost on the verge of taking over the Donetsk region.”
Putin’s troops are now pushing along an arc of three key points: Chasiv Yar, just west of the town of Bakhmut, which Russia captured in the spring of 2023; the small industrial town of Toretsk; and in rural terrain west of Ocheretyne, a village on strategic high ground taken in May after Russian forces advanced northwest from Avdiivka, which they occupied in February.
Although there is heavy fighting elsewhere, including at Kupyansk in the northeast and at points along the southern front, the offensive in Donetsk represents a notable change of tactics by Russian commanders, who appear to have learned from past mistakes and are now making steady gains for the Kremlin, also threatening the Ukrainian town of Kostiantynivka, which lies on a strategic highway.
This week, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported that Ukraine halted a large mechanized assault by Russian forces near Kostiantynivka, resulting in a significant loss of Russian equipment. On Friday, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that the “hottest situation” was still unfolding near Pokrovsk.
“This new development in the Donetsk region is very interesting as it indicates a broader shift in operational planning,” said Karolina Hird, an analyst at ISW. “Russian tactical mistakes previously prevented significant progress, and they have struggled to come up with strategies in recent years.”
“Previously, Russian operational commanders only sent troops on protracted operations with heavy casualties,” he continued, “but now they are learning how to conduct simultaneous, mutually reinforcing offensives and maintain constant pressure on Ukrainian resources.”
Ukraine's weakened forces are feeling the pressure, made worse by sweltering summer heat, with temperatures soaring earlier this month to more than 104 degrees in some areas along the front.
Ukrainian commanders and soldiers interviewed by The Post cited exhaustion and dwindling resources, including a severe lack of troops. A new mobilization law passed by Ukraine’s parliament has yet to provide desperately needed reinforcements, as new recruits are still undergoing training and some men eligible for conscription have fled the country or are hiding at home to avoid the draft.
A 56-year-old sergeant, who gives his name as “Bart,” described the situation as “critical” and said there was “serious chaos” on the front lines. He blamed mistakes in leadership decisions, including instances where Ukrainian and Russian forces confused their positions.
Mikhail, 46, commander of a mortar battery fighting in Krasnogorivka, known as “Brain”, said the reconnaissance had shown Russia had recently “raised the bar” around Ocheretyne and committed significant resources, including more troops and tanks.
Last week, Russian forces managed to advance four miles west of Ocheretyne, forcing the withdrawal of a Ukrainian infantry brigade holding the line at the village of Prohres.
Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade was forced into a “chaotic retreat” due to a lack of soldiers.
Some of the heaviest fighting of the summer is now taking place around the industrial city of Toretsk, where Russia has made significant tactical advances.
Military commanders and analysts said the purpose of those clashes and the Russian attacks on the nearby town of Niu-York was to put pressure on tired Ukrainian infantry units to break through to Kostiantynivka.
Ukrainian soldiers said Russian forces near Toretsk appeared to be using the same strategy they employed to capture Avdiivka in February, after months of intense fighting. There, the Russians surrounded the Ukrainians on three sides, while simultaneously wearing them down by incessantly dropping glide bombs from above.
Now, in addition to the relentless shelling and drone attacks, extreme heat is exhausting soldiers living in trenches in Ukraine's forests and open fields. And clear skies mean soldiers are even more exposed to reconnaissance and attack drones.
Some Russian forces are also advancing west and north through the town of Kurakhove. If they capture Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, the entire Donetsk region would be in danger.
Several Ukrainian commanders cited the acceleration of drone warfare as a major battlefield challenge, and Russia has significantly increased its electronic jamming capabilities to erase Ukraine's previous advantage in using first-person view, or FPV, drones.
“What has changed a lot is the tactics of drones and the use of electronic warfare. Before, we had the advantage and were more efficient, but now that is not the case,” Mikhail said.
Serhii, 29, a commander of a drone unit based in Niu-York whose call sign is “Shelby,” said Ukraine is also redesigning drones to perform mine-clearing tasks and new types of assaults. For example, he said, engineers had placed anti-tank mines on the heavy-duty Kazhan drones.
Many vehicles in Donbas are now fitted with antennas, indicating they are carrying drone-jamming equipment. Soldiers also use small black boxes known as “sugars,” radars that identify and warn of drones flying overhead. Sugars did not exist in Ukraine a year ago, but are now common.
Ukrainian soldiers also noted an increase in the use of aircraft bombs, especially Soviet-era glide bombs, around Chasiv Yar and Niu-York, which they said were causing significant damage and affecting morale. Some weigh 6,600 pounds and can destroy infantry positions and buildings with catastrophic effect.
Eugene, 41, a drone pilot based in New York, said that while Russian commanders still rely on “meat assault” tactics — sending waves of recent, often ill-prepared recruits at a target — they are also applying new “scorched earth” tactics to level entire cities.
“The Russians are attacking New York with air and artillery bombs to completely destroy entire quadrants of the city so they can move troops in,” said Serhii, the drone commander.
Pasha, 34, a drone commander fighting with the 105th Brigade, described the situation in Niu-York as “really difficult.”
“They are using Niu-York to encircle Toretsk, and I think they now have a real chance to encircle it, it is just a matter of resources and time,” Pasha said. Gliding bombs are so powerful that they can incapacitate entire infantry units with concussions, he said.
Hird, of the Institute for the Study of War, said Russia was unlikely to succeed despite its recent advances.
“Russia has not shown it can effectively conduct mechanized advances and take large swaths of territory, so it is unlikely it can take all of Donbas by force,” he said. Still, he said, a slow, grueling, attritional conflict was more beneficial to Moscow as Ukrainian morale flags and future Western support is in doubt.
Siobhán O'Grady in Kyiv contributed to this report.
