Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir election results forced a grudge match during the day. Haryana swept the exit polls. So expected results came in Jammu and Kashmir. Hi, The details of the election results were like a roller coaster ride during the day on Tuesday. Initially, Congress got a clear majority in Haryana, then the whole table turned and BJP moved towards majority. In Jammu and Kashmir, this happened as predicted. The prediction that the National Conference and Congress alliance would come to power came true. One thing that has become obvious is that people have given support to familyism in Haryana. But familyism has been re-established in Jammu and Kashmir. The Abdullah family has regained strength in Jammu and Kashmir. Mufti's family has been wiped out. BJP did not get seats in Jammu and Kashmir as expected. This was the first election after the abrogation of Article 370. But people of Kashmir seem to have supported the decision of Article 370. Because, they feel that if Kashmir is to be saved, this family, the Abdullah family, can save it. Much of the discussion during the day was on the Haryana result. An interesting factor came out that in Haryana Congress got more vote share but less seats. But BJP got the benefit of more seats with less vote share than Congress. It is evident that the entire vote bank of BJP whose ally was JJP till now can be said to be swallowed up by BJP. JJP has been swept out of Haryana. The BJP removed Manoharlal Khattar from the post of Chief Minister, replacing him with Naib Saini to avoid and eliminate anti-incumbency. However, Saini did not have much time left. BJP came to know that there was forced resentment against Khattar. Secondly, Haryana had three issues against the central government. Jawan, Kisan and Pioneer. These three points were not so effective. Congress campaigned only on these three issues and kept everything on the sidelines. Till the end, it looked like Hooda was the winning horse in this race but he came to a halt. Shailja and Hooda had an internal conflict in the Congress, which was also discussed. The issues of Agniveer and unemployment were discussed among the people, but it seems that the BJP has lost sight of these issues. The National Conference and the Congress alliance had said that if our government comes, we will reintroduce Article 370, which is technically not possible. Because it requires power in the central government. But the happy thing for them is that the National Conference has got power again in the state. Omar Abdullah can become the Chief Minister of Kashmir again from this family. BJP has selected three members here through the lieutenant governor. So the majority figure has now increased. If the National Conference and Congress want to run the government for a long period of time, they will have to have the support of the independents. So that the stability is increased. Because earlier the alliance of BJP and PDP lasted only for three years and then that alliance was broken. It seemed that the double engine would fail in Haryana but it did not. BJP wanted to run Kashmir under President's rule or LG's rule but now it is not possible. Because now a coalition government of National Conference and Congress is going to be formed in Kashmir. Much of BJP's base still depends on Narendra Modi's popularity. Let's talk about Haryana… Baji suddenly reversed in Haryana, hat trick of BJP! There was a direct fight between BJP and Congress in Haryana. But parties like Aadmi Party, JJP, INLD and BSP also entered the fray. Talking about the result, in Haryana, BJP won 48 seats, while Congress got stuck on 37 seats. Haryana Legislative Assembly's majority has crossed 46, BJP has achieved a hat-trick. Before the election, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi gave former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda a free hand, but did not announce his candidacy for the post of Chief Minister. It is said that Hooda gave tickets to 72 of his supporters and did not give tickets to his opposition leaders sitting in the Congress itself. The Congress High Command ignored these things. A picture has emerged that only the internal discord of the Congress has destroyed the Congress. The Kisan, Pahlwan and Jawan issues did not affect the BJP. There were anti-BJP issues but the Congress could not raise them. There were three main anti-BJP issues in Haryana. These issues are Kisan, Jawan and Pahalwan. Kisan movement, injustice with pioneers and the issue of Jawan i.e. Agniveer also continued to be discussed in Haryana. These three issues were such that the Congress could have used it as a weapon against the BJP but the Congress could not bring these issues well before the people and did not do what could have vigorously opposed the BJP. Congress gets overconfident in HaryanaThe Congress was initially confident about the Haryana assembly elections, and gradually became overconfident. After the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the confidence of the Congress increased and the high command blindly trusted the people of the Congress in Haryana itself. If we look at the Jat population in Haryana, it is about 27 percent. Jats are believed to have direct influence on 35-40 seats in Haryana. Keeping this in mind, Congress fielded maximum 35 Jat candidates. Congress's idea of capturing the Jat vote bank also failed. Ignoring OBC vote bank has cost Congress in the interest of Jat and Dalit votes Congress has not taken OBC vote bank seriously. BJP woke up in time and removed Manohar Lal Khattar and made Naib Saini the Chief Minister. The BJP inducted Manohar Lal Khattar into the Union Cabinet to appease Punjabi voters, but did not take the risk of including him in the election campaign. It is believed that 18-20 seats in Haryana are dominated by OBC voters. Along with fielding OBC leader Saini, BJP fielded the highest number of OBC candidates with 24, while Congress also fielded 20 OBC leaders. Prime Minister Modi repeatedly raised the issue of reservation in Haryana's election meetings. In a meeting, Modi said that opposing reservation is in the DNA of Congress. Now it's about Jammu-Kashmir… Why did BJP not get electoral benefit from the promise of 'Naya Kashmir'? BJP needed to win at least 30 to 35 seats in Jammu alone to install its Chief Minister in Jammu and Kashmir. While, he has to perform well in the valley as well. But this did not happen. In such a situation, the question arises that why did the BJP not get the benefit of the decision to remove Article 370 and the promise of 'Naya Kashmir' in this election? In August 2019, the central government abrogated Article 370 and not only abolished the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, but also made it a union territory. After all this, restrictions remained in force in Jammu and Kashmir for several months. When the situation began to return to normal, the Modi government promised a 'New Kashmir' in the name of development, jobs and security. On the other hand, Farooq Abdullah's National Conference and Mehbooba Mufti's PDP linked Article 370 with 'Kashmiri identity'. These steps of BJP were termed as anti-Kashmir. Gaivgari was told that a large population of not only Kashmir but also Jammu is against the removal of Article 370. Anti-separatist action heavy on BJP? In BJP's 'Naya Kashmir' more emphasis was given on security. People welcomed the action taken by the government against terrorism, separatism and stone pelting. But on the other hand freedom of expression was also felt to be suppressed. A perception was created that intimidation was being used to suppress dissent. Due to this reason, BJP could not emerge as expected in the Kashmir Valley. The promise of a job remained unfulfilled! BJP promised jobs to end the resentment after making Kashmir a union territory. It was also promised that the government would bring investment in Kashmir, thereby creating jobs. However, these promises did not work much. Due to which the anger of the people increased. Aam Aadmi Party has opened an account in Jammu and Kashmir Aam Aadmi Party had hoped to win some seats in Haryana, but it did not succeed, but the account of Aam Aadmi Party has been opened in Doda seat of Jammu and Kashmir. A new opportunity has arisen for AAP in a different area. Aam Aadmi Party candidate Mehraj Malik has won Doda seat by 4500 votes. BJP candidate Gajay Singh Rana has lost against him. 2024 elections are so different from 2014 Omar Abdullah to be CM of Kashmir may benefit from NC-Congress alliance, independents and smaller parties will form decisive National Conference-Congress coalition government. National Conference (NC) contested on 51 seats and Congress on 32 seats. CPI (M) and Panthers Party were given one seat each. Both NC and Congress candidates have contested on the remaining 5 seats. In 2014, both the parties contested the elections separately. Then NC got 15 seats and Congress got 12 seats. While this time, by contesting elections together, the Mahagathbandhan has got 48 seats. The NC-Congress alliance had to seek the help of another small party to form the government. Sajjad Lone's Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC), Altaf Bukhari's own party engineer Rashid, who defeated former CM Omar Abdullah in the Lok Sabha. BJP and PDP formed the government in 2014, it lasted only for 3 years. In the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, neither party could get a majority. PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. Along with this BJP became the second largest party with 25 seats. NC got 15 seats and Congress got 12 seats. At that time BJP formed the government in alliance with PDP but it lasted only for three years instead of six years. Finally, in a rally in Haryana, Narendra Modi said while campaigning that till now there has been such a tradition that the government which is in the center comes to Haryana. This tradition continues.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
EDITOR'S VIEW: Kamal no Kamal: Haryana's 'Political Wrestling' defeats Congress, Kashmiris don't accept 370 decision, shocking mandate on nepotism
