Voting for assembly elections in Jharkhand has been done. Now on November 23 will know whether JMM is returning to power? Or BJP is forming the government? Before the results were out, Bhaskar's reporters reached all 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand and got a sense of the mood of the voters. We spoke to everyone from common people to political experts, senior journalists and political parties.
In Jharkhand, no single party or coalition gets the required 41 seats for majority. BJP alliance (NDA) can get maximum number of seats. The JMM-led India Bloc may finish second. Congress is suffering the most, which could show India a way out of power.
This time local parties like Jharkhand's JLKM and independent candidates can also play an important role in forming the government. Independent candidate Devendra Singh alias Bittu Singh from Panki seat and independent candidate Shalini Gupta from Koderma seat are in a strong position.
Closer to NDA power in Jharkhand Even though no coalition has an absolute majority in Jharkhand, the BJP-led NDA seems to be the closest to forming the government. NDA has a strong hold on 37-40 seats. If this coalition wins even 40 seats, 1 additional seat will be needed for a majority. In such a situation NDA can take the help of any independent MLA or small party on any one seat.
If we look at the seat sharing formula of NDA in Jharkhand assembly elections, BJP contested on 68 seats, AJSU-10, JDU-2 and LJP(R)-1 seat. In 2019 elections, BJP got 25 seats, this time the party can win 29-32 seats, that means the party seems to have an advantage of 3-5 seats.
AJSU got 2 seats in last election. This time he may get 3-5 seats. JDU and LJP(R) did not get a single seat in the last elections. This time they are likely to get 2 and 1 seats.
Congress biggest disappointment for INDIA Bloc JMM is contesting the highest number of 43 seats in the India block. After this Congress is contesting on 30 seats and RJD on 6 seats. CPI (ML) has fielded its candidates on 4 seats. 3 of these seats Dhanwar, Vishrampur and Chhatarpur are friendly fights between India Bloc parties.
If we talk about the results of 2019, Congress has 16 seats, but this time the party may be limited to only 6-8 seats in the elections. JMM also seems to be losing 2-4 seats. JMM had 30 seats in the last elections. This time the party is likely to win 25-29 seats.
While the Left may get one seat. The party can win 2 seats this time. At the same time RJD may get 1 seat like last time.
Senior journalist Shambhunath Chaudhary says, 'Congress was not seen fighting in the entire assembly elections. The state leadership of the party disintegrated during the elections. Even the visits of national leaders were not done with full preparation. He did not speak on Jharkhand issues. In Rahul Gandhi's speeches, the old issues of saving the Constitution and Lok Sabha elections were raised.
'India Bloc was already considering Hemant Soren as its leader. JMM got another star campaigner in the form of Kalpana Soren in the election. India Bloc's campaign was run on the strength of these two leaders, so it can be said that 80% of the gains for India Bloc in this election will go to the Hemant-Kalpana duo.
BJP can open account in Kolhan In 2019, the area where the BJP suffered the biggest setback was Kolhan. This time the party has made a strong siege here. First, the party inducted former CM Champai Soren, also known as the Kolhan Tiger, into the BJP from the JMM. After this he roped in Geeta Koda, a senior Congress leader and wife of former CM Madhu Koda.
In the last elections, the BJP suffered the biggest losses in this constituency due to Saryu Rai, Champai Soren and Geeta Koda. Saryu Rai defeated the then CM Raghuvar Das. This time all these faces are with BJP.
The BJP has fielded two bigwigs here, family members of former Jharkhand CM Raghuvar Das and Arjun Munda. With the help of these equations, BJP seems to be returning to Kolhan. If NDA's ally JDU is also included, BJP seems to be successful in getting 4-6 seats in Kolhan.
Independent candidates and smaller parties matter In Jharkhand, there is a fierce rivalry between the NDA and the India Bloc. Despite this independents and JRKM are looking strong in JLKM 2-3 seats, so JLKM chief Jairam Mahato could prove to be the 'X-factor' in the polls. Independent candidates are fighting hard on Panki and Kodrama seats.
Independent candidate Devendra Singh alias Bittu Singh from Panki seat was earlier in Congress. He was in touch with the BJP when he was not given a ticket, but after not getting a ticket, he decided to contest as an independent. Meanwhile, independent candidate Shalini Gupta is contesting from Kodrama seat. From here BJP has given ticket to Neera Yadav and RJD has given ticket to Subhash Yadav. In such a situation, Shalini Gupta seems to be benefiting from anti-Yadav votes. He has been the Koderma District Council President in 2014 and has been continuously active in the field since the 2019 elections.
Expert said- Independents can become kingmakers in government Shambhunath Chaudhary, a senior journalist from Ranchi, says, 'If we count by seats, NDA can win 38 to 39 seats. While India block seems to be winning 40-41 seats. BJP can win 30 to 32 seats in NDA. AJSU is getting 5 seats, JDU and LJP are getting 1 seat each.
JMM can get maximum 31 seats in India block. Congress may go down from its previous performance. I will give 7 seats to Congress, 2 seats to RJD and 1 seat to CPI-ML.'
Shambhunath continues, 'BJP's campaign was the strongest in the election. Last time BJP was 0 in Kolhan. This time he can get 5 seats. On the other hand, even in Santhal Pargana, BJP seems to get 1-2 more seats compared to the last election (BJP won 4 seats in Santhal in 2019). Independents and Jairam Mahato's party JLKM will also make a big impact in the assembly elections.
Difficult for NDA-India bloc to touch the magic number of majority Political expert Surendra Soren says, 'There is a strong possibility that no coalition will get an absolute majority. After the elections, Jharkhand may once again repeat its old history. NDA seems to be winning 37 to 40 seats and India is winning 36 to 38 seats.
Apart from the meetings of the JMM team and its two star campaigners Kalpana Soren and Hemant Soren, there was neither an election meeting nor a rally. His workers were focusing on door-to-door campaigning.
'On the other hand, BJP's number of meetings was slightly higher, though it is difficult to say now whether the number of meetings will increase the number of MLAs. Both BJP and JMM seem to get 25 seats each.
Where does Congress stand in this election? In response to this, Surendra Soren says, 'The body language of the Congress workers and leaders at the ground level did not show much confidence. It will be surprising if the Congress even reaches double digits in this election.
How will the government be formed if no party or coalition gets a majority? Surendra says on this question. Both parties have to rely on their constituents to touch the majority figure (41). If the Congress and the Left perform better in Santhal, the state will once again have an India Bloc government.
At the same time, LJP(R), JDU and AJSU are the three major parties in the NDA camp. If they succeed in getting their seats, BJP will definitely form the coalition government.
Santhal saw more BJP flags than JMM for the first time According to Surendra, this is the first time in this election that a large number of BJP flags have been put up on houses in Santhal Pargana. There was an inclination towards BJP among Santhal youth and women. This is a big change. This time BJP can make some changes in Santhal. At the same time BJP can win 2-3 seats in Kolhan too. This time overall BJP will get 25-30 seats.
Jairam Mahato will influence the votes of JMM and AJSU. Both the alliances may suffer in seats where Mahato voters are present.
The effect of 'Batenge to Katenge' and 'Ek Rahenge to Safe Rahenge' was seen Political analyst Anand Kumar has visited 70 assembly seats of Jharkhand. He does not agree with the figures of experts Shambhunath Chaudhary and Surendra Soren. Apart from both, Anand believes that this time the NDA seems to be in a position to form the government in Jharkhand with 42 seats. There are no signs of a hung assembly.
Anand says, 'BJP has emerged as the largest party in the elections. BJP seems to be winning 34 seats single-handedly. As for its allies, JDU is looking strong on 2 seats, AJSU on 5 and LJP(R) on 1 seat.
On the other hand, the India bloc may be limited to 34-38 seats. Both JMM and Congress seem to be losing in the elections. Congress may reduce from 16 to 8 and JMM from 30 to 26-28 seats, while CPI(ML) MLAs may increase from 1 to 2.
The way Muslims marry tribals is a state problem. The issue has been magnified by UP CM Yogi Adityanath's slogan Batenge To Katenge and Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai statement.
Hemant-Kalpana fell heavily on BJP's top leadership Where do you see JMM in this election? In response to this, Anand says, the Maiya Yojana can also play a role in increasing women voters. Now it remains to be assessed how much color it will bring to the ground.
What JMM has earned in this election is its powerful faces. The duo of Hemant Soren and Kalpana Soren contested the elections single-handedly against the BJP's top leadership. Kalpana's popularity can be gauged from the fact that after PM Narendra Modi, if anyone's meeting was gathering crowds, it was Kalpana Soren's meeting.
“The Congress did not fight the Jharkhand assembly elections single-handedly, it depended on Kalpana and Hemant. Rahul Gandhi made only two visits here. There was no meeting with Priyanka. If any Congress candidate wins, he will win only on the basis of his popularity.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
