The stock market is expected to remain bullish this week. Factors like domestic and global economic data, auto sales data, market watchdog SEBI meeting will decide the market movement.
Siddharth Khemka, Research Head, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services said- It is expected that the positive momentum in the market will continue due to frontline stocks.
This week the market will remain closed on Gandhi Jayanti on 2nd October. Last week, Sensex rose 1027 points to close at 85,571 and Nifty rose 388 points to close at 26,175.
Market movement will be decided by five factors:
1. Powell Speech and Economic Data: Global investors will keep an eye on the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on September 30. This speech is considered important after the repo rate cut by 0.50% in the September meeting.
Apart from this, investors will also keep an eye on job openings, unemployment rate, non-farm payroll, vehicle sales and factory order data. America is the largest economy, hence every major decision taken impacts the economies of the world.
2. Keeping an eye on crude oil prices: Tension has increased in the Middle East due to the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. In such a situation, investors will also keep an eye on oil prices. Brent crude futures fell 3.66% last week to $71.95 a barrel.
Crude is currently trading below all major moving averages. At the same time, crude futures have remained below the mark of $ 80 per barrel on closing basis since the last week of July. Low oil prices are beneficial for oil importing countries like India.
Israel carried out an airstrike on Hezbollah's headquarters at around 9:30 pm Indian time on Friday night.
3. Domestic Economic Data: Investors' focus will be on fiscal deficit and infrastructure output data for the month of August to be released on September 30. Current account and external debt data for the June quarter of 2024 will also be released on September 30.
Apart from this, the final data of Manufacturing and Services PMI for September will be released on October 1 and October 4. Bank loan and deposit growth numbers will be released on October 4. Data on foreign exchange reserves will also be released on the same day.
4. Auto sales data to be released: Investors will also keep an eye on the auto sales data for the month of September. Auto stocks like Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Hero MotoCorp, Eicher Motors, TVS Motor, Bajaj Auto, Mahindra & Mahindra will be in focus.
5. Domestic and Foreign Investors: Investors will also keep an eye on domestic and foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors i.e. FIIs sold shares worth Rs 1209 crore on Friday (September 27) alone. Domestic investors i.e. DIIs bought shares worth Rs 6886 crore.
FIIs sold shares worth Rs 3,933 crore in the cash segment last week, but so far in September they have bought shares worth Rs 22,404 crore. While DIIs made purchases worth Rs 15,962 crore for the week. The total investment for the month is Rs 24,212 crore.
6. Global Market: Investors will also keep an eye on how global markets perform next week. On Friday, the US market's Dow Jones closed at 42,313 with a rise of 0.33%. Nasdaq fell 0.39% and closed at 18,119.
Asian markets also witnessed a rise on Friday. In the Asian market, Japan's Nikkei rose by 2.32% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 3.55%. China's Shanghai Composite Index closed 2.88% higher.
Last week Sensex and Nifty made all-time high
Sensex touched a record level of 85,978 and Nifty of 26,277 on September 27. However, there was a decline after the day's trading. Sensex closed 264 points down at 85,571 and Nifty closed 37 points down at 26,178.
Graphics Source: VaskarAssets