There may be a rise in the stock market this week. The market will keep an eye on the second quarter results of companies, retail-wholesale inflation data, global economic data, oil prices, FII-DII flows and upcoming IPO.
Such factors which will decide the movement of the market this week…
1. Second quarter results of companies
This week the maximum focus will be on the second quarter (July-September) results of the companies. The results of big companies like Reliance Industries, Infosys, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, HCL Technologies, HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, Axis Bank, Tech Mahindra, Nestle India, Wipro and Tata Consumer Products will come.
Apart from these, HDFC Asset Management, Jio Financial Services, Bank of Maharashtra, PVR-Inox, L&T Technology Services, CEAT, Central Bank of India, Tata Chemicals, Tata Communications, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, MCX India and RBL Bank. Results will also be released.
2. Retail and wholesale inflation figures
Investors will keep an eye on the retail and wholesale inflation data for September to be released on October 14. Retail inflation increased to 3.65% in August as compared to 3.60% in the previous month. At the same time, wholesale inflation declined to a four-month low of 1.31% in August compared to 2.04% in July.
Furthermore, balance of trade figures for September will be announced on October 15. Passenger vehicle sales figures for September will be released on October 17. Data on bank loan and deposit growth for the fortnight ending October 4 and foreign reserves for the week ending October 11 will be released on October 18.
3. Global Economic Data
Investors will also keep an eye on US retail sales and weekly job figures. In addition, the European Central Bank will announce its decision regarding interest rates on October 17. Experts believe that the central bank will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, because inflation has fallen below its target of 2%. At the same time, ECB officials have already indicated rate cuts.
Apart from Europe's inflation data, focus will also be on China's GDP growth and industry capacity utilization for Q3-2024 and retail sales data for September. Besides, inflation data of Japan and UK will also be monitored.
Experts believe that inflation in the world's second largest economy will be slightly lower in the third quarter, which was recorded at 4.7% in the second quarter, while it was 5.3% in the first quarter.
4. Oil Prices
Oil prices are likely to remain volatile at higher levels amid geo-political tensions in the Middle East region and expectations of more stimulus measures from China. However, experts do not expect a big jump in prices.
Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell 1.27% for the week to $79.04 a barrel. Whereas last week it had seen a rise of 9.1%. Prices were below the 50 and 200-day EMA (exponential moving average), but above the short-term moving averages (10 and 20-day EMA).
5. FII-DII Flow
The market will also keep an eye on the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DII). FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 58,395 crore in the cash segment so far in October, the highest monthly outflow since March 2020.
FIIs pumped some money into undervalued Chinese equity markets following its fiscal stimulus measures. Therefore, experts said that if there is any withdrawal, it is likely to have some impact on the markets going forward.
Whereas DII continued its strong support to equities, which offset the outflows from FII. DII bought shares worth Rs 57,792 crore in the current month, which is the highest ever in a month.
Experts expect equities to get considerable support from continued domestic inflows in every major downturn given strong economic growth. Last week, FIIs sold shares worth Rs 27,675 crore, which was compensated by DII by buying shares worth Rs 31,364 crore.
6. Initial Public Offering (IPO)
- Hyundai India's mega IPO will be open from October 15 to October 17, on which the market will keep an eye. There is a plan to raise Rs 27,870 crore from this IPO, which is the largest issue so far in Indian IPO history.
- Whereas in the SME segment, the IPO of Lakshya Powertech will open on 16 October and the issue of Freshra Agro Exports will open on 17 October. Whereas, the IPO of Pranik Logistics will close on October 14.
- Shares of Garuda Construction and Engineering will be listed in the market on October 15. Shares of Shiv Texchem and Pranik Logistics will be traded on BSE SME and NSE Emerge from October 15 and October 17, respectively.
Last week there was a fall of 307 points in Sensex.
In the entire last trading week, the Sensex had fallen by 307 points (0.37%). On the last trading day i.e. Friday (October 11), the Sensex closed at 81,381 with a fall of 230 points. Nifty also fell by 34 points, it closed at the level of 24,964.
Graphics Source: VaskarAssets
