There may be ups and downs in the stock market this week. The market will keep an eye on Trump Administration, Domestic Economic Data, Global Economic Data, FII-DII Flow and Upcoming IPO. Due to Maharashtra Assembly elections, the markets will remain closed on Wednesday i.e. 20th November.
According to Harshubh Mahesh Shah, Founder of Wealth View Analytics, there may be a lot of ups and downs in the market this week. He believes that Nifty-50 will fall to the level of 23,320, although support can also be seen around this level. Apart from this, he has also said that the main direction of the market is going to remain negative in future.
Such factors which will decide the movement of the market this week…
Domestic Economic Data
The market will keep an eye on HSBC Manufacturing and Services Flash PMI numbers due on November 22. Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.5 in October from 56.5 in September and Services PMI increased to 58.5 from 57.7 during the same period. Forex reserves for the week ending November 15 will also be released on November 22.
global economic data
The market will be eyeing the manufacturing and services flash PMI data of the US, Euro Zone, Japan and the United Kingdom on November 22. Apart from PMI data, investors will also keep an eye on the weekly US jobs data and the ECB (European Central Bank) Financial Stability Review of the Euro Zone. Besides, focus will also be on the inflation data of Europe, Japan and Britain for the month of October.
Trump Administration
Investors will keep an eye on developments in the administration of new US President Donald Trump, including the formation of his cabinet. According to experts, any policy proposal that puts upward pressure on US inflation could affect the Fed's future rate-cut trajectory.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has already indicated that after the 75 basis point cut, further cuts may not be aggressive and will also depend on data.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. ()
dollar index-rupee
The market will also keep an eye on the US dollar index, bond yields and the performance of the rupee against the dollar. The dollar index rose last week amid softening expectations of interest rate cuts under Trump and speculation about tax cuts and trade tariff increases. It closed at 106.67 last Friday, up more than 6% from the first week of October.
Ten-year US Treasury yields neared their highest level since January 2024, closing the week at 4.44% compared with 4.3% last week. The US bond market is worried about a possible growth in the fiscal deficit under the Trump administration, as he has promised corporate tax cuts.
Last week, the rupee had reached an all-time low of 84.46 against the dollar, which closed at 84.4 on Friday. Experts expect the rupee's weakness to continue in the short term.
FII-DII Flow
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) in India have been selling continuously in the last few days. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DII) have compensated this withdrawal to a great extent, which provided support to the market.
FIIs sold shares worth about Rs 9,700 crore last week (Rs 29,533 crore in the current month), apart from the outflow of Rs 1.14 lakh crore last month. On the other hand, DIIs bought shares worth Rs 12,508 crore during the week, taking the net buying for the current month to Rs 26,522 crore, from Rs 1.07 lakh crore in the previous month.
oil price
India is one of the major oil importers, hence softening oil prices is supporting the equity markets. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, fell 3.83% during the week to close at $71.04 a barrel. Oil prices have remained largely below $80 a barrel since September.
Initial Public Offering (IPO)
4 new IPOs are going to open this week. Of these, only one is from the mainboard segment. Apart from this, there will be an opportunity to invest money in already open 2 IPOs in the new week. The four new IPOs opening next week include NTPC Green Energy (November 19), Enviro Infra Engineers (November 22), Lamosek India (November 21) and C2C Advanced (November 22) Systems.
The already open IPOs are Onyx Biotech and Jinka Logistics Solutions. Shares of Neelam Linens and Garments will be listed on NSE SME in the new week on 18th November. Mangal CompuSolutions will be listed on BSE SME on November 21. Onyx Biotech shares will make their debut on NSE SME on November 21.
Last week Sensex fell 1,906 points
Last week the Sensex has fallen 1,906.01 points or 2.39%. With this, the benchmark indices have fallen by about 10% from the record high of September 27. The stock market remained closed on Friday i.e. 15th November due to the holiday of Guru Nanak Jayanti. Earlier on Thursday (November 14), the Sensex closed at 77,580 with a fall of 110 points. There was also a fall of 26 points in Nifty, it closed at the level of 23,532.
However, BSE Smallcap rose 429 points to close at 52,381. Out of 30 Sensex stocks, 17 were in decline and 13 were up. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 29 were in decline and 21 were in rise. In the NSE sectoral index, the FMCG sector had fallen the most by 1.53%. Whereas, the media sector had the highest increase of 2.26%.
Graphics Source: VaskarAssets
