Nifty may touch 21,982 level in next 2-3 months. Currently it is at the level of 23,500. That means the Nifty may still fall by around 1,500 points. Harshubh Mahesh Shah, founder of Wealth View Analytics, has predicted this market. Harshubh made this prediction on November 10. Since then the Nifty has fallen by around 500 points.
Read his full interview…
1. A video went viral on social media, in which a person says that when I buy a share, it goes down, I sell it… then it goes up. This happens to most people, what causes this?
This is due to emotions. Suppose I gave someone a share for 100 rupees and that share came for 95 rupees. Now out of fear he sold it… Then the stock went up to Rs. Reached 150. In such a situation that person starts to feel that now this share will increase more… He buys it at 150 rupees. Usually this happens with people. This happens due to fear of missing out. People get trapped because of this mindset.
2. Futures and options trading has become very popular in the last few years. So does this really make money? What is the minimum capital required for futures and options trading?
If you work in nifty futures the margin should be at least Rs. 2 lakh will be. Now the lot size is also going to increase so the margin will increase to around 3 lakh rupees. People don't have that much money. Currently Nifty's lot size is 25 and the price is around Rs 25,000. That means 5 lakh rupees have become… from next month it will be 15 lakh rupees.
You have Rs. 2-3 lakhs by paying a margin of Rs. Buying an item worth 15 lakhs. People start trading with so much money. They don't think that if there is a deficit, it has to be maintained. I think you should work in futures if you have money equal to the full margin of the exchange or at least half.
Those who don't have a single penny to work in future come in the option. Options have more of a problem, they will not sell but they will only buy. So buying in this matter has become such a big gamble.
3. If a new investor wants to start options trading, what should be the process?
Option is the last step in the stock market. First of all any investor should spend time understanding the equity market. Before getting into options trading you need to understand the overall market structure. People start putting money into option trading without understanding anything. This is a complete gamble. It is better that you go to Goa and invest your money in casinos.
The options are not for everyone. If you want to do option trading then understand the 4-5 year market cycle.. get the knowledge.. then do it. One should start with option selling instead of option buying.
4. New SEBI rules are going to be implemented… lot sizes are also going to increase. What do you think will change this market? Will retail investors avoid this?
This will cause problems for people working in multiple lots. Earlier Nifty lot was 25, now it is going to be 75. Suppose a person buys 2 lots of Nifty. ie 50 quantity. So what many people used to do was when target 1 was reached they would sell one lot i.e. 25 lots and then find profit for another lot.
As the lot size increases, he will face the challenge of buying more quantities. 80% people only work in multiple lots. Now if the margin increases then those people will gradually go out of the market. Only those who are professionals will remain in the F&O market.
But one thing is that you cannot remove everyone from the stock market. Those who want to trade will do so. People who have less money will try to raise money from somewhere else. This will hurt them more. I don't think the new SEBI rules will make much of a difference. You can't take gambling out of the stock market. Anyone who is doing this is an addict. They will do it because of addiction and cause more harm.
5. Very few people in our country know about financial astrology and don't even fully believe in it, so what is it? What is its accuracy?
Financial astrology is the study of planets. Our days are Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday… these are also in the name of the planet. For those who don't believe it, our Vedic science is proving it. Every day has a significance.
As Nifty runs on account of Jupiter. Bank Nifty moves according to Venus. Nifty moves whenever Jupiter Hora occurs. This definitely affects the market.
When Saturn reaches zero degrees the market definitely goes down. Like I even made a video when it came around February 28 that the market would crash, the same day the market crashed. So for people to have knowledge somewhere, it's not a matter of accuracy, it's a matter of impact… a definite impact. Then you mix it into technicals, mix it into fundamentals, mix it into indicators, mix it into options data chains…. You can increase the accuracy by mixing whatever you like.
Financial astrology tells you the date. What technicality says Bhava is God.. I speak according to Jyotish.. Time is powerful. You don't know the time. As whenever there is a new moon there is a boom in the market. On the day of Diwali, there was a new moon and the next day there was a huge surge in the market.
This happens because the Moon is associated with Amavasya. While the moon sitting above can move the ocean waves up and down, our bodies are also made of water. Our inner emotions are also being controlled. So the Moon rules our emotions which affect our stock market decisions. So the velocity changes more during Amavasya.
If people understand these things, their accuracy in the stock market can increase. We make no claim that the accuracy is 90% or 80%. We say we can know the time. As I know when the new moon is coming in November, then you will see that it will speed up. Momentum will come when the new moon arrives in December. There is a reason behind everything. So astrology is a science. You can use it with technical and basic.
6. How can we predict market tops and bottoms with the help of astro data?
Through astrology you can easily predict the top and bottom of the market. If you follow our Instagram, everything we say is happening. This is a science. I have also shared a strategy. When the Moon and Mars approach zero degrees, the market reverses. It means that if the market is up, it comes down and if it is down, it reverses and goes up.
Let me give you an example – there was an election on 3rd June. The market opened very high. Everyone thought he would go further. On that day the Moon and Mars were at zero degrees. The market bottomed out. The same thing happened under Trump.
There are many other combinations of planets that tell you the date in advance. You think time is powerful. Earlier, when technicality was not present, people used to do fundamentals only. When technology came, people said it was good. I say that 5 years from now people will say that astrology is fun. One should keep learning new things.
7. What is the direction of Nifty in short to medium term, how far can it go?
Nifty will reach the level of 21,982 in two-three months. Maybe the momentum will go up a bit, but it's bound to come down. No matter how much popcorn flies, it is bound to fall to the ground. It is possible that Nifty will rise but it is likely to reach that level. So still Nifty will come down by 2000-2500 points. This is my goal.
However, the market trend is positive after 5-6 months of struggle. There will be a good opportunity for investment now.
8. Which of your products are coming in the coming days?
Currently our only product is Impulse View where we explain how to positionally work in Bank Nifty. Another product we are going to launch is Impulse Wealth. In this we will give stock idea. We will launch it when the market decline stops. We are also planning to launch a portfolio management service. This will take about 6 months.
What are futures and options?
Futures and Options (F&O) is a type of financial instrument that allows an investor to take large positions in stocks, commodities, currencies with little capital. Futures and options are a type of derivative contract that has a fixed term.
In this timeframe, their prices vary according to the stock price. Futures and options on each share are available in one lot size.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this analysis WealthView belongs to Analytics, not Bhaskar. We advise investors to consult certified experts before taking any investment decision.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).