American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley predicts that India's economy will remain stable. India could be one of the best performing emerging markets in 2025 due to strong domestic investment. If the current market trend continues, the Sensex may touch the 1,05,000 level within a year. This represents an increase of 28.5% from current levels.
Sensex will achieve this level if the price of crude oil remains below $70 per barrel continuously. This will reduce inflation and RBI will cut interest rates more than expected.
- Base Case: The brokerage firm said the Sensex could touch the 93,000 level in the next one year even in the case of a normal trend (base case). This represents an increase of 13.8%. This estimate is based on the assumption that a reduction in the government deficit will stabilize the economy, increase private investment and widen the gap between real growth and the real rate.
- Bayer Case: Morgan Stanley believes that the Sensex could fall 14.3% from current levels to 70,000 in a year if the market bears down (bear case). This will happen when the price of crude oil rises to $110 per barrel and the US economy goes into recession.
Mark Mobius expects a 20% return in 18 months Mark Mobius, chairman of the Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund, is optimistic about India's growth. They expect a 20% return from the Indian market in the next 12-18 months. He believes that India will perform better than China.
Ahead of China in green investment India has overtaken China in green investment due to boom in renewable energy. About 20 thousand crores worth of deals were completed in the third quarter. This is four times that of China.
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