The stock market was bullish on Friday. After the last two consecutive days of crash in the stock market, today has seen an attractive rise. The Indian stock market is trading in a positive direction today due to buying in the PSU, technology and realty sectors. The Sensex jumped 2000 points after opening on a correction. Nifty also reached 23900 level from 23400 level. Market breadth turned positive again with funds, players valuing many stocks today in small, mid-cap stocks. Investors' capital increased by 6 lakh crores. The Sensex closed down 1961 points at 97117 points, while the Nifty futures index closed at 23886 points, up 537 points. While the Bank Nifty future index closed at 51082 points with a surge of 674 points.
In addition to selling pressure from foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the daily volatility picture in Indian equities is also changing. The daily average advance decline ratio (ADR) which was 51% in August fell gradually in the next two months to 32% in November. Advance Decline Ratio indicates that stocks are falling more than they are rising. The lower the ratio, the weaker the investors' sentiment can be said to be. ADR which was 51% in August fell to 47% in September and stood at 32% in October. In case of higher declines than the risers, it can be said that the interest of investors to buy stocks is decreasing. The benchmark Sensex and Nifty50 index have fallen 10% after hitting a high of 85,000 in the last week of September. Not only this, there is a widespread erosion in midcap and small cap as well. After a massive cash sell-off of Rs 1.14 lakh crore in October, foreign investors continued to sell in the first fortnight of November with a net sell of Rs 25,000 crore. The Indian stock market, which was known as a buyer's market for the last two-and-a-half years, is now becoming a seller's market.
Top gainers in today's trade include Godrej Property 5%, Titan Company 4%, Larsen 4%, TCS 4%, ACC 3%, Infosys 3%, Reliance 3%, Infosys 3%, HCL Technology 3%, Tech Mahindra 3% with gains. IndiGo, Grasim, Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Stocks like Mahindra, Lupine, Oberoi Realty, Sun Pharma, HCL Technology have gained.
Out of total 4041 scrips traded on BSE, decliners were 1474 and advancers 2448, 119 scrips were unchanged. While in 595 stocks there was a bearish lower circuit of only sellers against a bullish upper circuit of only buyers in 307 stocks.
Nifty Future Technical Levels NIFTY FUTURE CLOSE :- ( 23886 ) :- The next swing is likely to see Nifty Future touch the all-important level of 24008 points first and 24108 points from 23787 points to 23676 points, the all-important strong stoploss of 24108 points. Cautious positioning around 23606 points.
Bank Nifty Future Technical Levels Bank Nifty Future Close :- ( 51082 ) :- Next fluctuation is possible Bank Nifty Future may touch the crucial level of 50939 points first and 50808 points from 51188 points to 51303 points, 51373 points in relation to very important strong stoploss trading. Cautious positioning around the 51373 point.
Specific technical level regarding future stock HDFC Bank (1742) :- The share price of this leading company of HDFC Group is currently trading around Rs.1707. Buyable with a stoploss of Rs.1686, this stock is likely to register a price of Rs.1763 to Rs.1770 in a short period of time…!! Bullish focus on Rs.1788.
Havells India ( 1668 ) :- Positive breakout around Rs.1630 as per technical chart…!! Buyable with support of Rs.1617, the stock is likely to touch Rs.1684 to Rs.1690.
Tech Mahindra ( 1745 ) :- According to the technical chart this stock from the Computers – Software & Consulting sector is likely to trade profitably around Rs.1773 with a target price of Rs.1717 to Rs.1700. Consider a stoploss of Rs.1780 for trading..!! Voltas Limited (1655) :- This stock is sellable with a stoploss of Rs.1707 registering an overbought position around Rs.1696..!! It is likely to show the price of Rs.1633 to Rs.1620 in a phased manner…!! Consider bullish above Rs.1720.
Future direction of the market… Friends, on the global front, the development taking place after Donald Trump's victory in the US and on the other hand the expectation of a reduction in geopolitical tension, at the time when the US tariff war with China is expected to start, there is a big upheaval in the global markets. Earlier, as a result of China's stimulus mega package, the signs of foreign funds, foreign portfolio investors shifting from India to China caused a big gap in the Indian stock market Sensex, Nifty along with big gaps in small and mid cap stocks. In the next short period, the market will remain in correction mode with volatility. The selling spree by foreign investors is not over yet.
The country's GDP growth is likely to decelerate to 6.5% in the July-September quarter due to heavy rains and weak corporate quarterly results. Domestic rating agency Icra has maintained its FY2024-25 GDP growth forecast at 7% amid optimism that economic activity will pick up in the second six months of FY2024-25. RBI has estimated GDP growth at 7.2% for the current financial year 2024-25. Which is lower against the estimate of 8.2% in 2023-24. The reason behind this is the decrease in urban demand and excess rainfall. The GDP figures for the second quarter will be announced on November 30. In the first quarter, the GDP growth was recorded at 6.7%. However, GDP growth slowed in the second quarter due to extremely heavy rains and weak corporate quarterly results. Indian markets will be watching global trends and geopolitical tensions in the coming week.
The author is a SEBI registered research analyst and proprietor of Investment Point.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
