PM Modi and Donald Trump at the 'Namaste Trump' event held in Ahmedabad on February 24, 2020.
“Heartiest congratulations to my friend Donald Trump on his historic victory. We hope that we will both work together for the good of our people and for stability and peace in the world.” As soon as Trump's victory in the US election was confirmed, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated him on social media.
What will be the impact of Trump becoming President on India?
Now the question is what will be India's relationship with Trump who returns to power with the slogan 'Make America Great Again'.
Find out in 5 points what will be the impact of Trump's presidency on India.
1. Trump may raise tariffs on India's exports
The impact of Trump's re-election as President can be seen on India's exports. The main reason is that Trump calls India a tariff king, i.e. a country that imposes high taxes on American goods.
Trump had said during the election campaign on September 17 that India is very strict on import duties. If my government comes we will change this situation and put pressure on India to reduce tariff duty.
According to Rajan Kumar, professor of international affairs at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), if India does not reduce tariffs on American goods, Trump may also increase tariffs on Indian goods. Due to which Indian goods can become expensive in America. Which will have a direct impact on India's exports.
128.78 billion dollars i.e. about Rs. 10 lakh crore was traded. During this period, India exported 77.52 billion rupees or 6 lakh crore rupees to America.
2. The H1B visa process for employment can be difficult
Trump changed H1-B visa rules in his first term. The new rules kept foreign workers' wages the same as American workers, but also imposed many conditions on migrant workers. This led to an increase in the denial rate of H1-B visa applications during Trump's first term. Due to the rules, the time to complete the visa process also increased.
A total of 3.86 lakh immigrants were granted H1-B visas in 2023, of which 2.79 lakh were Indians. Now Trump is back, having already described the H1-B visa as very bad for the American workforce. If Trump re-imposes such terms and conditions, the biggest impact will be on the Indian IT sector, finance and other professionals who depend on H-1B visas for jobs in the US.
Currently there are about 51 lakh Indian immigrants in America. Indian workers constitute the largest number of all migrant workers in America. In 2021, 72% of the total NRIs aged 16 years and above were working here.
On the other hand, Trump has also taken a strict stance against immigrants entering the US illegally. Last year, 29 lakh people were arrested for crossing the border illegally. 90,415 of them were Indians.
However, Trump is in favor of bringing skilled labor to America.
3. Military and security
Defense deals such as the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) and GE-HL have strengthened military ties between India and the US. The deal was made during Biden's tenure. It is expected that the defense relationship between India and the US will further improve after Trump's return.
China is a big reason: To counter China's influence, the QUAD alliance between India, the US, Japan and Australia was strengthened in the Indo-Pacific region during Trump's last tenure. This series of US military agreements with India to deter China may continue in the future. It is expected that Trump's next term could accelerate arms purchases, technology transfers and joint military exercises.
When Article 370 was removed from Kashmir, Trump refused to intervene in the matter.
4. Pakistan, Kashmir and Bangladesh
Pakistan Regarding this, Trump said that we want to increase relations with him. But Trump made it clear that he has to be held responsible for terrorism. Even during the election campaign, Trump said – we will bring peace to the world through strength. This statement by Trump is a positive message for India on the issue of extremism and terrorism.
when From Kashmir When Article 370 was abrogated, Trump refused to intervene in the matter. He said that this is an internal issue of India. On the other hand, Kamala Harris said, “We have to remind Kashmiris that they are not alone in the world. We are monitoring the situation. If the situation changes, there will be a need to intervene.”
Trump In Bangladesh Condemned the atrocities on minority Hindus. He said that there is violence against Hindus, Christians and other minorities in Bangladesh. They are being attacked, they are being looted. I condemn it.
5. What will be the effect on the world?
According to Professor Rajan Kumar, as soon as Donald Trump becomes President, he has to face big challenges like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas war. Trump has already talked about bringing peace through power. Trump has been making statements on the Russia-Ukraine war before. During an interview, Trump said that-
On the other hand, Trump's stance on the Israel-Hamas war has been slightly different. Trump has spoken of ending the war in Gaza as soon as possible. However, it is not clear whether they want to end the war through a ceasefire or by eliminating Hamas.
Trump has openly supported Israel on several occasions during his previous term. He talked about recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel instead of Tel Aviv. Along with this, he shifted the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Apart from this, Trump recognized Syria's Golan Heights as an Israeli territory.
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Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
