Seasonal Mood: More monsoon rains and less snow means less chance of extreme cold

Snow cover (snow covered region) over the Himalayas has remained 32.2% compared to February this year and 108% of the monsoon rains this time. Meanwhile, the trend of statistics indicates that the coming winter season will be less cold. Earlier, 109% of the rainfall occurred during the 2020 monsoon and February of the same year saw the highest snow cover on record, but in October the snow cover remained at 16%. Then between December and February, winter temperatures were consistently recorded 2-3 degrees above normal.

Snow cover remained only 40% in October compared to February last year, but 94% of monsoon rainfall occurred. Due to which there was severe cold from north to central India in 2023-24. Snow cover is usually lowest in October immediately after the monsoon followed by the highest snow cover in late February after the November to February snowfall. In 2020, snow cover decreased the most from February to October by 84%.

The expert said – whether it will be colder or more depends on the snow cover…wind pattern is also important Snow falls in the basins of 3 rivers of the country – Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. While states from North, Central, East to North-East India have a necessary condition for cold.

In February 2020, an area of ​​1.81 lakh sq km was covered by ice in the Indus river, which increased to 35 thousand sq km in October. In comparison, on February 24, the area had reduced by around 9 lakh sq km to 1.73 lakh sq km. How was monsoon rainfall in 4 years… 108% in 2024, 94% in 2023, 106% in 2022, 99% in 2021 and 109% of normal in 2020.

Meteorologist D.P. Dubey says that how cold it will be has more or less nothing to do with monsoon rainfall, but the extent of snow cover over the mountains is an important factor. There are 2 factors for cold. – One is the number and intensity of western disturbances and the other is the wind flow pattern. As northerly air moves over the plains from the mountains, the temperature drops and the cold increases. If the snowfall is heavy but the air direction does not move towards the plains, the cold is less annoying.