The results of 90 assembly seats of Jammu and Kashmir will come today. Counting of votes will start from 8 am. Counting of votes for all seats will be completed by evening. However, the trend till 12 noon will make it clear who will form the government after 10 years. 46 mr' required for majority.
In Jammu and Kashmir, 63.88% voting took place in 3 phases from September 18 to October 1. In the last election held 10 years ago, i.e. 2014, there was a 65% voter turnout, i.e. 1.12% less this time. Apart from National Conference, Congress, BJP and PDP, smaller parties are in the contest.
In the exit poll held on October 5, five survey agencies gave majority to the National Conference and Congress governments. And 5 exit polls predict a hung assembly. That means no party will get an absolute majority. In such a situation, small parties and independent legislators can become kingmakers.
Big statements of 4 leaders before election results…
Jammu and Kashmir BJP chief Ravinder Raina said in an interview to ANI on October 7-
“BJP will form the government with the support of smaller parties. I am confident that BJP will open its account in Kashmir as well. On October 8, the BJP will win around 35 seats and form the government with BJP-backed independent candidates and smaller parties.”
While, on October 6, PDP leader Zuhaib Yusuf Mir said-
“We are ready to form an alliance with the National Conference and the Congress to keep the BJP out of power.”
President of National Conference Farooq Abdullah expressed happiness about this. After this, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti's daughter Iltija Mufti presented the party's stand on October 7. He wrote in X post-
“Talks of an alliance are just speculations. The senior leadership of PDP will take a decision on supporting the secular front only after the results. This is our official position.”
Engineer Rashid also demanded the resumption of Darbar Move in Jammu and Kashmir. He said-
“The Darbar move was a good tradition. It should be restored again. It has acted as a bonding mechanism encouraging cultural and emotional connection between the two regions.”
46 seats are required for a majority in the 90-seat house, but if exit polls are to be believed, there is a possibility of a hung assembly this time as well. It will take some time to predict what the outcome will be, but first the state Let's take a look at the political equation…
The NC-Congress alliance could benefit, independents and smaller parties crucial The National Conference-Congress alliance is the closest to forming the government. National Conference (NC) contested on 51 seats and Congress on 32 seats. At the same time, CPI(M) and Panthers Party were given one seat each. Both NC and Congress candidates contested the remaining 5 seats.
In 2014, both the parties contested the elections separately. After that NC got 15 seats and Congress got 12 seats. By contesting elections together this time, the Grand Alliance will get more than 10 seats. This coalition may get 35 to 40 seats, but it falls short of a majority.
At the same time, if the NC-Congress alliance had to seek help from others to form the government, Sajjad Lone's Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC), Altaf Bukhari's own party engineer Rashid, who defeated former CM Omar Abdullah. Only independents can become kingmakers with Awami Ittihad Party in the Lok Sabha elections from Baramulla. He hopes to get 10 to 15 seats.
BJP is likely to get 25 seats this time too but PDP is weak
The BJP, which stood second with 25 seats in 2014, is likely to get almost as many seats this time as well. The Congress-NC alliance is looking strong in the Kashmir Valley, while the BJP seems to be gaining ground in the Jammu region.
In Kashmir BJP may get 0-1, NC+Congress 29-33, PDP and other smaller parties and independents 12-20. In Jammu region, BJP could win 27 to 31 seats, NC + Congress 11 to 15, PDP and other smaller parties and independents 0 to 3 seats.
PDP, which formed the government with BJP in 2014, is looking weak this time. Then the party stood first by winning maximum 28 seats. However, in the Lok Sabha elections held this year itself, it became clear that Mehbooba Mufti's party had lost ground. The party did not get a single seat in the elections. Mehbooba Mufti himself lost from Anantnag.
Let's know about 7 hot seats of Jammu and Kashmir…
1. Unoccupied seat
Bijbehara seat of Anantnag district is considered to be the stronghold of Mufti family. This time Mehbooba Mufti's daughter Iltija Mufti is contesting from here. Since 1967, Mufti family or PDP candidates have won 6 out of 9 assembly elections.
However, in 2014, PDP candidate Abdul Rahman could win by just 2,868 votes. At the same time, Mehbooba Mufti lost the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from Anantnag. Experts who understand the politics of Jammu and Kashmir say that Iltija Mufti is facing tough competition on the Bijbehara seat.
This seat seems to be in danger for PDP. His competition is with NC's Bashir Ahmed. Bashir's father has also been an MLA three times. He has also defeated former CM Mufti Mohammad Saeed once in the Lok Sabha elections.
2. Ganderbal
The Ganderbal seat is held by the Abdullah family. This time former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah is contesting from here. His grandfather Sheikh Abdullah won from here in 1977 and father Farooq Abdullah in 1983, 1987 and 1996.
From 1977 to 2014, NC has faced only one defeat from this seat. When Omar became CM for the first time in 2008, he also won the election from this seat. PDP's Bashir Ahmed Mir is in the fray against him.
In 2014, he contested from Kangan seat and faced NC's Mian Altaf. Bashir lost by less than 2000 votes. This time the Kangan seat is reserved for SC, so Bashir is contesting from Ganderbal. They are also considered to have good grip.
Sheikh Ishfaq Jabbar, who was an MLA from the same seat from NC in 2014, is also contesting as an independent. Apart from this, Abdullah is also facing Ahmed Wage alias Surjan Barkati, known as 'Azadi Chacha' in the Kashmir Valley.
Barkati is accused of inciting youth to join terrorist organizations after the encounter with terrorist Burhan Wani. That is why he is in jail. Omar had earlier lost the Lok Sabha election from Baramulla seat to Rashid, an engineer who had contested from Tihar Jail.
For this reason, it is believed that this competition will be tough for Omar. Political expert Bilal Furqani also believes that even though this seat is a stronghold of the Abdullah family, there will be a tough competition here as well. This is the reason why Umar is also contesting from Budgam seat.
3. Budgam
This seat is also dominated by NC. NC has lost only once here in the last 10 assembly elections. In such a situation, Budgam is considered a safe seat even for Umar. But senior Kashmir journalist Bilal Furqani says, 'I think the Budgam seat will be a closer contest than Ganderbal.
He will have a tough fight with PDP candidate Syed Muntajir Mehdi. Muntajir hails from the Shia community. Budgam seat has the largest number of Shia Muslim voters. His father Agha Syed Hussain Mehdi was a famous Shia leader. He has also been a big leader of Hurriyat. In such a scenario, there could be a very close election here.
Between 30 and 33 thousand voters in the seat are Shias, about 35% of the district's population. In 2014, Mehdi's cousin Agha Syed Ruhullah won election from NC from this seat. Ruhulla has been elected as MP from Srinagar.
4. Nowshera
BJP Jammu and Kashmir state president Ravinder Raina is contesting from Nowshera seat. He became MLA from here in 2014. PDP candidate Surendra Chaudhary, who gave him a tough fight in the 2014 elections, is contesting from NC this time. Before this he had separated from PDP and joined BJP. Then came to NC and is contesting assembly elections.
Sources believe that Surendra Chaudhary has his own vote bank. In the 2014 assembly elections, the Congress candidate got 5,342 votes, while the NC got 1,099 votes. This time NC and Congress are contesting elections together. In such a situation, the match here will be tough.
A special thing is that Ravinder Raina is second among the candidates with least assets. In the affidavit, Raina put his net worth at Rs. 1,000 has been announced.
5. Kupwara
Jammu and Kashmir People's Conference (JKPC) chief Sajjad Gani Lone is contesting from the Kupwara seat. A three-cornered fight for the seat is being seen. NCA has fielded Nasir Aslam Wani and PDP Mir Mohammad Fayaz. In 2014, this seat was won by JKPC candidate Bashir Ahmed Dar. He got a total of 24,754 votes.
6. Lungate
North Kashmir's Langat seat has been a stronghold of the National Conference. But in 2008 Awami Ittihad Party Chairman Sheikh Abdul Rashid alias Engineer Rashid changed the situation by winning his first assembly election.
In 2014 also he won the election from here. This year, in jail, he defeated Omar Abdullah from the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat. This time his brother Khurshid Ahmed Sheikh is contesting from Langat seat. He is pitted against JKPC leader and Kupwara District Development Council Chairman Irfan Sultan Panditpuri.
The joint candidate of NC and Congress, Irshad Ghani, is also giving a strong fight. Apart from this, independent candidate Dr Kaleem Ullah backed by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami is also in the fray.
7. Sopore
Sopore, famous for its apple orchards, came under the grip of terrorism in the 90s. This seat is considered a stronghold of separatist leaders. Separatist leader Syed Ali Gilani has been elected thrice from this seat. This is the reason why polling in the seat is also decreasing.
In 2008, only 19% voting took place here. This figure increased to 30% in 2014 and this time it is 45.32%. However, the seat is in the news as Ejaz Ahmad Guru, elder brother of Parliament attack perpetrator Afzal Guru, is contesting as an independent candidate from here.
NC and Congress have fielded their separate candidates on this seat. NC has given ticket to Irshad Rasool and Congress has again given ticket to Abdul Rasheed Dar, MLA from here in 2014. While Irfan Ali Lone from PDP is in the field.
BJP and PDP formed the government in 2014, it lasted only for 3 years In the 2014 Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, no party could get a majority. PDP emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats. Along with this BJP has become the second largest party with 25 seats. NC got 15 seats and Congress got 12 seats. Read the story of the formation of the BJP-PDP government and its fall in three years…
1. BJP talked to all parties to form government As soon as the results came out on December 23, 2014, all the parties started trying to form the government. The BJP claimed that it has the support of six MLAs, including independents. BJP's then Jammu and Kashmir in-charge Ram Madhav said that he had spoken to all parties.
Devendra Singh Rana, who was once with the NC and now a BJP leader, in an interview to ANI again reiterated his claim that Omar Abdullah was also ready to form a coalition government with the BJP at that time. However, Omar is denying this.
Senior BJP leader Devendra Singh Rana gave an interview to ANI about 2 weeks ago in September.
2. Omar Abdullah supported PDP, PDP formed an alliance with BJP About two years ago in a rally, Omar Abdullah had said that I had gone to Mufti Sahib to give unconditional external support for the formation of the government. Seeing no possibility of government formation, Governor NN Vohra imposed Governor's rule in the state (as per the constitution of Jammu and Kashmir at that time).
About two months later, on 24 February 2015, then BJP national president Amit Shah and PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti announced the formation of a government with both parties in a joint press conference. Both sides came together under the Common Minimum Program. However, neither of them disclosed the terms of agreement on Article 370, AFSPA etc. On March 1, Mufti Mohammad Saeed was sworn in as the Chief Minister at the Zorawar Singh Stadium in Jammu. BJP's Nirmal Kumar Singh became the Deputy Chief Minister. 12 cabinet ministers from both parties also took oath. This was the first time that the BJP was going to be part of the government in Jammu and Kashmir. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was also present on this occasion.
On February 24, 2015, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti and the then BJP president Amit Shah had a meeting of about 45 minutes before the alliance was announced.
3. Coalition broke up within a year, PDP came back together due to BJP's efforts Less than a year after the government was formed, Mufti Mohammad Saeed died on January 7, 2016. After this, the PDP broke the alliance citing differences in ideology, but continued efforts within the BJP. Finally on April 4, 2016, BJP and PDP formed the government again. This time Mehbooba Mufti was on the Chief Minister's chair.
4. Government fell in 2018, state split into Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh in 2019 This government also did not last long. In June 2018, the coalition collapsed and the government fell. After this the state had Governor's rule for 6 months. After this President's rule was implemented. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections were held during the President's rule, with the BJP returning to the Center with an overwhelming majority.
Following this, on August 5, 2019, the BJP government abrogated Article 370 and divided the state into two Union Territories (Jammu-Kashmir and Ladakh). After this, the state had President's rule for almost 6 years and now the assembly elections have been held.
Image Credit: (Divya-Bhaskar): Images/graphics belong to (Divya-Bhaskar).
